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Prediction markets
$24B traded per month
Monthly volume went from under $5 billion to roughly $24 billion in seven months. Federal oversight by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) means a national footprint from launch.
The map
National by default, with a watchlist.
Exchanges operate as CFTC-designated contract markets. Nevada and Maryland are restricted. Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois, New Jersey and Tennessee are contested in court and still trading. Status as of July 2026; we re-check before each flight.
The read
What matters in this market.
The steepest growth curve in US gaming
Combined monthly volume rose from under $5B in September 2025 to about $24B by April 2026. Kalshi alone traded $39.7B in the year to February 2026.
National on day one
Campaign geography is a strategy choice here, with a short contested-state list we manage as litigation resolves.
The audience lives inside live sport
87% of Kalshi's trailing-year volume was sports. The buy goes where sports betting money goes, without a 31-state licence map.
A land grab measured in months
The category leaders are spending now to define the space. Brand recall bought this year costs a fraction of what it will cost in 18 months.
Contested and restricted states
| Status | States | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Restricted | NV, MD | Nevada upheld by the Ninth Circuit (March 2026); Maryland injunction denied |
| Contested | AZ, CT, IL | CFTC sued to block state enforcement (April 2026) |
| Contested | NJ, TN | Kalshi holds injunctions; trading continues |
| Live | All others | National via CFTC-regulated exchanges |
Why TV here
Built for this category.
Sports adjacency without the licence map
Buy the same live-sport inventory sportsbooks fight over, without planning around 31 separate state regimes.
Trust is the conversion problem
Most Americans still don't know what a prediction market is. Television explains a new category faster than any feed, and it lends the credibility a funded account needs.
The media
What you can reach.
How it's bought
Four routes in. Two are yours.
Most US networks need a US-registered entity, US credit or a US agency of record (AOR) before they'll take an order. Element Media Direct is a US company and can be that AOR.
| Route | Timing | Read |
|---|---|---|
| The upfront | 12 to 18 months ahead | Big annual commitments. The wrong door for a market entrant. |
| Scatter | 2 to 13 weeks ahead | Your linear entry. Flexible, market-priced, includes local DMA buys. |
| Programmatic CTV | Days | Fastest way in. Geo-fencing built in. Minimums around $25K to $50K. |
| Managed service | Weeks | Direct with Hulu, Peacock, Amazon and YouTube. Minimums around $100K. |
What it costs
Directional CPMs.
CPM is cost per thousand impressions. These are typical 2026 ranges; your plan gets real quotes.
| Format | Typical CPM | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Live sport (NFL, NBA) | $9 to $40+ | The most expensive inventory in US TV, and the strongest betting adjacency |
| Broadcast primetime | $6.50 to $30+ | Mass reach and the trust that comes with it |
| Premium CTV | $6.50 to $30 | Geo-fenced, measured, brand-safe |
| Programmatic CTV | $4 to $23 | The workhorse of a compliant launch |
| National cable | $2 to $18 | Efficient frequency |
| AVOD (Tubi, Pluto, Roku) | $3 to $15 | Cheap incremental households |
| Local broadcast and cable | $1.50 to $10 | State-level and DMA-level reach at regional cost |
Live in 30 days
Signature to on air.
Map and plan
Legal map confirmed. Target states, audiences and budget set. A plan across linear DMAs and CTV. Creative brief agreed.
Produce
Script to finished spot. Broadcast-ready creative is included, with compliance and responsible-gaming elements built in at production.
Clear and book
Network clearances secured. CTV built with state geo-fencing. Linear placements booked.
Launch and measure
CTV goes live and linear flights start. The measurement baseline is set on day one.
Measurement
TV you can hold to a number.
Weekly reporting on cost per funded account, by state, daypart and creative. If TV isn't paying back, you'll hear it from me first.
Geo-level incrementality
Matched-market tests across DMAs and states. The cleanest way to show TV caused the growth.
Impression-level CTV data
Every impression logged by household geography, feeding cost per funded account by state, daypart and creative.
Spike analysis
Minute-by-minute response in downloads, site traffic and branded search after each linear spot.
Marketing mix modeling (MMM)
TV's contribution read alongside every other channel, so budget follows evidence.
The US TV Playbook for Gaming OperatorsFree download
The US TV Playbook
All 7 categories mapped. Who can advertise where, how US TV is bought, what it costs, and how to measure it so finance signs off.
Contact
Tell me what you're trying to do in the US.
You'll talk to me directly. If TV isn't the right next dollar for you, I'll say so.